High Pressure Weekend

Posted on June 29, 2008 by Russell

Finally, I get back to blogging. 3 weeks ago I endured the weekend of death. Saturday 7th June was my six hour, ever so difficult, CFA exam in London, and  Sunday 8th June., on the hottest day of year so far in Devon, was the Ruby Run. I marginally underachieved in both. The CFA results are in the lap of the Gods and my time of 2 hours 3 minutes for the half marathon was 200 seconds slower than planned. Check out my pain as I mount Hatherleigh high street. Still it was 2 minutes faster than last time so maybe some time next decade I will beat 2 hours.

Today I ran again for the first time since the “race” (I use the term very loosely). Six miles along the Tarka Trail in a cool breeze  (well it is the first week on Wimbledon so for a dry day I should be grateful). This evening I will watch the Spain versus Germany Euro Championship Final. Given my two flatmates in London are German and Spanish, I am glad to be able to take a position and support Spain. My prediction is Spain 3-1 Germany.

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London under Boris

Posted on May 9, 2008 by Russell

So, with some amazement, I find London has elected Boris Johnson as its mayor.  I had taken him for a bumbling idiot but maybe I should suspend judgment. His first steps look promising. He appoints Ray Lewis, ex prison governor, to target youth crime. Maybe, with a good team around him, Boris can be successful. He is making a good start, but then so did Gordon Brown.

The Labour Party now must look at itself and its leader and make change. Gordon Brown, who started well last year as PM, seems overwhelmed  by the role. His inability to delegate leaves him tired, overworked, and prone to errors of judgment. Now, Sarkozy has withdrawn his support from Tony Blair maybe Gordon should give his old mate, Tony a bell and ask him if he wants his old job back. A few muttered apologies about Iraq, and the Labour Party would have him back as leader with open arms. An election contest of Blair versus Blair-lite(blue) would be winnable for Labour. However, I can’t see Tony making that apology so Milliband is Labour’s best hope.

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How To Choose The Democratic Candidate?

Posted on March 3, 2008 by Russell

The Democratic Party should be luxuriating in its choice of candidate. Both excellent, minimal differences in policy, both capable of leading the world’s (current) greatest nation.

So how to choose between them? The one most likely to beat McCain? Charisma? Or on policy?

Here is how the policies differences break down:

Foreign Policy
Iran: Obama negotiates, Clinton sanctions.
Iraq: Obama advisors anti-war; Clinton advisers pro-war.
Cuba : Obama to talk without preconditions, Clinton imposes pre-conditions.

Economic Policy
Sub-prime mortgage crisis – Clinton more interventionist, Obama more towards consumer protection.

Immigration – No meaningful differences.

Social Policy

Medicare – Obama support universal provision; Clinton supports universe mandate

Civil Rights, Abortion, Gun Control, Stem Cell Research, Death Penalty, Gay Rights – no real differences

Summary
Obama will engage with the outside world more, spend less of defence as USA will less antagnostic to its enemies.
Clinton is more of a interventionist than Obama, as indicated by the individual mandate on Universal Health Care Scheme and her response to the sub-prime crisis

Overall Obama has broader appeal within the Democratic Party and within the USA as a whole so is best placed to beat McCain.

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Difficult Times Ahead of the US Dollar

Posted on March 2, 2008 by Russell

In 1971, on the demise of the gold standard, the US dollar became the currency of choice for most nations for their foreign reserves. The US Dollar was regarded in high esteem as a stable or even appreciating currency. In fact many countries actually pegged their currency to the US dollar, the most important being the Gulf States.

However, the long term future for the Dollar now looks uncertain. Kuwait bailed out of pegging to the dollar in May 2007 replacing this with a basket of currencies, and the rest of the Gulf States may follow suit in an attempt to reduce inflation which is double that in the US and Europe.

While its is true that Brazilian supermodel, Giselle Bundchen, is still taking payment in dollars that is unlikely to stop the decline. I do not believe there will be a sudden flight from the dollar, instead more of a gradual drift away, China and Russia being the most notable in starting down this route.

Furthermore China and Japan may reduce support of the dollar if the US falls into recession later this year. Why support your consumers if they have stopped buying anyway? China may want to bring its own inflation more under control by selling dollars and buying reminbi hence reducing the money supply.

That apartment in San Francisco might become affordable after all….

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San Francisco Fusion Taxi Rides

Posted on February 14, 2008 by Russell

On Wednesday I went out with some colleagues to Betelnut This is a Asian fusion restaurant in the Marina district, a short but intersting taxi ride from downtown San Francisco. [More on this later] . The waiter was helped us order an very enjoyable selection of starters, firecracker shrimp, glazed pork short ribs with thai basil & garlic, crispy tofu cakes with doc ong’s chilli sauce, and chili crusted calamari. This was washed down with the smooth, not-too-bitter, not-too-sweet local Betelnet Honey Blonde Ale. The main courses we also shared: singapore black pepper jumbo prawns, seared tenderloin “sashimi” with “momiji,” scallions & ginger shoy, “bein pow” firecracker chicken szechuan chilis, onions & almonds, korean charbroiled pork with scallion-pepper sauce and green papaya, grapefruit, herbs & “nuoc cham” salad accompanied with some sake. Great variety!

I had two contrasting taxi rides between the hotel and the restaurant. The first taxi driver opened the conversation by asking me not to use a mobile phone during the journey. The radiation gives him a headache. He then spent the twenty minute journey making laconic comments about San Francisco and England while taking a slow but scenic route through majestic residential areas. It is was $10 fare and protocol dictated another 20%. For the return journey, around midnight, my taciturn driver sped the whole way, hitting over 75 mph through the Broadway tunnel. We overtook everything in sight, firetrucks, ambulances, low flying aircraft, and made it back downtown in under 10 minutes for a $7 fare and a $3 tip.

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San Francisco Nights

Posted on February 13, 2008 by Russell

Last Tuesday night in SF, managed to win a pairs Pool tournament. First prize way an Apple IPOD shuffle, one of greatest achievements of the human race to date, 2cm by 3 cm and so much pleasure! I have downloaded a heavily restricted subset of my music, but hey, every track is a winner! A mere 300 songs occupy the 3 cubic centimetres of acoustic joy that are transferred to my ears. Apple rocks! I knew this but had forgotten. Iphone to follow once they get real and honest about licensing.
But back to the pool. Despite there being no incentive under American rules to hit any ball in particular, my partner Peter and I managed to defeat stronger opposition and pot the black (sorry 8 ball) in 3 consecutive matches and triumph. Just wait for the snooker rematch in England!

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6-a-Side Football – Strategy Really Works!

Posted on February 6, 2008 by Russell

Even after 40 years of playing football, it took me until now to appreciate playing a ‘system’. We were playing a 6-a-side match using a zonal approach. One at the back, one in the middle, one of the  right, one of the left , one up front and one in goal. And woe betide anyone that strayed out of their zone! Amazingly (to me) it works!

Last week we drew a friendly  1-1 against last season’s league champions and today we won the first league match 4-1 against weaker opposition.  

It is simple, do not follow the man or the ball, stay in your zone. 

 Number one, you last the full game and two, the opposition never has space, and hence time.

I will report back in a month on our progress. 

Our manager, Tim, deserves all the credit for our victory: we have evolved from a kick-and-run rabble into an organised outfit in two weeks. Amazing!

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CFA Studies : Ethics and Professional Standards

Posted on January 25, 2008 by Russell

Okay, the clock is running down for the CFA Level 2 exam in June. This week I have been focussing on Ethics. Key Learning points are:  6 principles and 7 standards.

PRINCIPLES

  • Act with competence, integrity and diligence (ACID)
  • Place Clients before Personal interests (PCP) 
  • Use reasonable care and exercise judgement (URCJ) – how you would address Reggie Perrin’s boss
  • Promote integrity of capital markets (PICM) – pick me – Shrek
  • Practice and Encourage Other to act ProfessionalLy and Ethically (PEOPLE)
  • Maintain and Improve professional Competence  (MIC)

 STANDARDS

  • Professionalism – know the law, operate within it and be objective
  • Integrity of Capital Markets – don’t use material non public info or manipulate the market
  • Duties to clients – be loyal, prudent, fair and choose suitably and be discreet
  • Duties to employers - loyal and tranparent on outside income and be an effective supervisor
  • Investment analysis – diligent, sound investing, clear disclosure, and distinguish fact from opinion
  • Conflicts of interest – disclose conflicts of interest and referrals, and prioritise transactions
  • CFA Membership – Maintain reputation and use CFA trade mark appropriately

I scored 35/40 on Concept Checkers and 14/18 for the 3 item sets

For the CFA Institute Soft Dollar Standards  and the Research Objectivity Standards the key is to remember what is REQUIRED and what is RECOMMENDED. There does not seem to be any underlying principles involved here that are useful in distinguishing so I think this is one to memorize.

I hope there is a question on New Prudent Investor vs Old Prudent Man.  The theme is consistent and clear here: total return instead of capital protection, risk management rather than risk avoidance, portfolio scope rather than individual investments, no product restrictions and duty of a trustee to delegate responsibility to an expert investment manager rather self-manage the fund. 

 Next week, Regression Analysis. I bet you can hardly contain yourself.

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How Very Upper Class

Posted on January 8, 2008 by Russell

I am thoroughly enjoying Virgin Atlantic’s upper class experience. From the limo that arrived this morning on time at 0800, the politeness and informative conversation of my chauffeur, Stephen, as we drove past the sights of London, through to the 10 minute transit from the leaving the limo to arriving in the Virgin Clubhouse, the full English breakfast that hit the spot, to this final free internet connection. What next, well there could be some massage or a game of billiards? 

This is in stark contrast to my last trip with Virgin in late November which was a Premium Economy flight from Miami to London. The nadir of the journey was at three in the morning, being unable to sleep, with my left leg stretched out fully but engaged beneath the seat in front of me. Never again.

I can recommend Disturbia as an scary, light enjoyable movie. I feel asleep during Atonement. I must find something more gripping on the next flight.

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Post Christmas Exercise Blues

Posted on December 28, 2007 by Russell

Another Christmas has come and gone. Relaxing. Ate and drank too much. Need the reinvigoration of a new exercise regime. Fortunately, M has supplied the remedy, a NSD Powerball. This is a device, the size of a tennis ball, that contains a gyroscope. Once kick started by string or finger in can rotate at up to 15000rpm and generate up to 40lbs force on the body. So far I am having some trouble. I can operate with my right hand and hence my right arm biceps and triceps are toning up nicely. However I can’t seem to get the timing with my left hand so my left arm remains obstinately skinny. 

Since my return from the USA at the beginning of the month I ran for the first time, about 5 miles this morning, Meeth to Petrockstowe and back. Felt much better for it.  

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